September 7, 2010 · A new poll out today shows the Texas governor's race in a virtual dead heat. The poll from Hill Research Consultants has Governor Rick Perry leading former Houston Mayor Bill White 42-percent to 41-percent. Other polls this summer have shown the two-term incumbent with much larger leads.
The key to this poll's results could be found in the 14-percent of people who said they were unsure of which candidate they support. The undecided vote was higher in the Hill poll than other recent polls. David Benzion is Senior Research Analyst for Hill Research Consultants. He thinks this could be because of how early each respondent was asked about their preference for governor. It was question number three to be exact.
Benzion: "We were able to capture people's opinions before they heard a lot of arguments for or against any one individual. Or sort of got riled up being asked about taxes or the environment or any issue that might sort of stir their partisan feelings."
Benzion says all those undecided voters mean that, while Perry has the edge, White has an opportunity. The poll was commissioned by Texas Watch, a political watchdog group. A group that hasn't exactly been friendly to Governor Perry over the years. So Texas Watch hired Hill Research in part because of that perceived bias. Almost all of Hill's political polling work is done with Republicans that includes candidates and state and national party organizations. Although UT Austin pollster Jim Henson says that's not the best way to measure a poll's accuracy.
Henson: "For me, I mean you can look at reputation of firm. And you can look at this kind of partisan thing. But at the end of the day what really counts is – does the sample look good – do the demographics look right."
Other than the governor's race, Texas Watch also used the poll to highlight what the group feels is a need for legislation to help regulate home insurance rates. The poll showed the majority of all voters surveyed – Democrat, Republican, other – in favor of tighter controls on the home insurance market.
|
